ALBERTA CONSTRUCTION STUDY
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05 / RESPONSIBLE USE & SOURCES

Understand the evidence.
Know its limits.

Beyond U.S. Supply: Opportunities for Alberta Construction

A transparent guide to the data behind this project: where it comes from, how AI helped, and what the results can support.

Public sources2023–2025 trade baselineAcademic research prototype
AI-generated illustration. It does not identify a supplier, factory or actual project.
1

From public records to research evidence

Follow the six steps behind the dashboard. Each step shows what came from a source, what was transformed, and what the result means.

  1. Official imports

    Download Statistics Canada records

    Source: Canadian International Merchandise Trade (CIMT). The original annual files are CIMT-CICM_Imp_2023.zip, CIMT-CICM_Imp_2024.zip and CIMT-CICM_Imp_2025.zip.

    Fields used: year, province of customs clearance, HS10 product code and description, country of origin and nominal import value in Canadian dollars. Quantities need compatible product codes and units.

    Find these sources in the reference register →
  2. Selected & organised

    Build the research product basket

    Selection: imports cleared in Alberta during 2023–2025, mapped to an initial catalogue of 76 product families.

    Transformation: aggregate by product, origin and period; map HS10 statistical codes to research families built from one or more HS6 subheadings. Add readable names and four overlapping construction-use groups.

    Find these sources in the reference register →
  3. Policy cross-check

    Identify relevant trade measures

    Sources: Finance Canada’s U.S. counter-tariff list and CBSA’s measures in force. CBSA = Canada Border Services Agency, Canada’s customs and border agency.

    Transformation: match HS10 prefixes to listed HS8 tariff items, retaining rates and dates; separately check antidumping product descriptions. Keep 26 counter-tariff-matched families plus 1 additional antidumping family.

    Find these sources in the reference register →
  4. Calculated indicators

    Turn import values into comparisons

    U.S. import value: sum recorded values from U.S.-origin goods. U.S. import share: divide that value by recorded imports from all origins, then multiply by 100.

    Transformation: sum values by origin for the other-country comparisons. For 2023–2025, divide the three-year sums; do not average the annual percentages. Round only for display; a zero denominator is unavailable.

    Find these sources in the reference register →
  5. Independent manufacturing evidence

    Verify products and factories

    Primary evidence: manufacturer pages and public documents linking a relevant product, an explicit manufacturing statement and a production location. Examples: AltaSteel — rebar, Edmonton; Waiward — fabricated structural steel, Edmonton.

    Transformation: create a separate evidence register with manufacturer, product family, city/province, source link, review date and status. NPRI = National Pollutant Release Inventory, an Environment and Climate Change Canada inventory of pollutant-reporting facilities; 2024 facility records support location checks.

    Find these sources in the reference register →
  6. Combined research outputs

    Connect the evidence in the dashboard

    Join: calculated import indicators + trade-measure matches + independently documented manufacturing. The manufacturing audit covered the original 76 families; the filtered dashboard presents 27.

    Additional context: Statistics Canada tables 16-10-0117-01 (annual manufacturing, 2023–2024), 16-10-0048-01 (monthly manufacturing, 2023–2025), 36-10-0709-01 (provincial flows, 2022–2024) and 36-10-0478-01 (supply and use, 2022).

    Find these sources in the reference register →
Import percentages come from official trade records. Manufacturer names come from separate public production evidence.

Read the interpretation limits · Explore the research scope and detailed checks

Download the methodology infographic · PDF
Statistics Canada attribution

Adapted from Statistics Canada: CIMT (2023–2025); tables 16-10-0117-01 (2023–2024), 16-10-0048-01 (2023–2025), 36-10-0709-01 (2022–2024) and 36-10-0478-01 (2022). This does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product.

2

Different sources have different reuse terms

STATISTICS CANADA DATA

Statistics Canada Open Licence

Permits reuse and adapted products, including commercial uses, subject to its conditions. Keep attribution, reproduce data accurately and avoid implying official endorsement or identifying confidential businesses.

Read the licence

NPRI OPEN DATA

Open Government Licence — Canada

The NPRI catalogue identifies its open-data licence. Retain source acknowledgement and check the conditions shown on the dataset record before reusing the data.

View dataset and licence

GOVERNMENT WEBPAGES

Institution-specific website terms

A public webpage is not automatically an openly licensed dataset. This project links and summarizes policy information. Check the applicable terms before redistributing copied pages, especially commercially.

Canada.ca terms · CBSA terms

COMPANY WEBSITES

Manufacturer content retains its own rights

Company statements are cited as evidence. Linking to a source does not grant permission to reuse its photos, logos or full text. Manufacturer listings do not imply endorsement or a commercial relationship.

Check each publisher’s terms before reusing its content.

3

Public data, with a clear privacy boundary

No private transaction records

The research uses public aggregate trade data and published organization information. It does not contain customer lists, personal contact records, private contracts or named importer transactions.

Filters run in the browser

The supplied dashboard code processes its included data locally. It does not add a sign-in form, analytics tracker or a service that sends filter selections to a server.

Hosting is separate

WordPress, hosting services, plugins and linked websites may have their own cookies, logging and privacy practices. This project note does not certify the privacy configuration of those services.

How public company evidence is used

Manufacturer names and published factory locations come from separately cited public sources. Trade totals are not used to infer the purchases or import activity of any identifiable business.

4

How AI helped create this project

ChatGPT with Codex

Used to research public sources, write processing scripts, explain preparation steps, calculate indicators, draft English text and build the website. Python and JavaScript performed the data processing and calculations.

AI-generated illustrations

Image generation created illustrative construction visuals. These images are decorative context and are not evidence of a real factory, supplier, facility or construction project.

Checks and accountability

Project records include automated checks and a 10-product spot review against outside sources. This is a spot check, not a statistically representative validation or certification of the full catalogue. A later public-source desk review refined manufacturing matches; independent human review remains incomplete.

AI assistance does not turn an assumption into evidence.

Recorded trade values come from source data. Construction-use labels and manufacturer matches are research classifications. Uncertain matches must remain flagged.

5

What the results can — and cannot — tell you

Key limit: Alberta customs clearance is not Alberta’s entire construction market.

A foreign product cleared in Ontario and later sold by a Toronto distributor to Alberta may be missing from this Alberta import subset. Conversely, goods cleared in Alberta may be used elsewhere. The provincial indicator can therefore understate or overstate actual consumption. The dashboard measures U.S. dependence within imports cleared in Alberta, not total dependence of Alberta construction consumption. Read the official province-of-clearance definition.

Import share is not total market share

U.S. share = recorded U.S.-origin import value ÷ recorded import value from all origins, for the selected product and period. Domestic Canadian sales are outside this denominator. Canadian-origin imports may include re-imported Canadian goods; they do not measure domestic factory sales.

Documented production does not establish market share or a legal origin label

Published manufacturing evidence supports a statement about the existence of relevant production in Canada or Alberta. In this project, “Made in Canada” is a dashboard shorthand for documented production; it is not a legal labelling certification. Prefer the wording “Documented Canadian manufacturing”. A distributor, office or warehouse address alone is not factory evidence. It does not establish sales share, spare capacity, current stock, Canadian ownership, input origin or whether a product meets the required specification. Absence of a record means no evidence was found in this research, not that no factory exists.

Product categories are a research selection

The original exploratory catalogue reviewed 76 product families. The current dashboard displays 27 unique families: 26 with current Canadian counter-tariff list matches and one additional family (drywall) with a U.S.-origin antidumping measure. Copper pipe fittings also have a U.S.-origin antidumping reference and already belong to the 26; do not count them again. The four construction groups overlap. Some HS codes include non-construction uses. Category totals must not be added without removing overlapping products. The study does not cover all construction materials or imported services.

Import dollars are not physical volume

Values are nominal Canadian dollars, not adjusted for inflation. Quantities are only comparable within compatible HS10 codes and units. Zero or missing quantities and unavailable context values are flagged rather than filled with invented values.

Combined-period shares are weighted

For 2023–2025, the dashboard divides the sum of U.S. import values by the sum of all-origin import values. Across products or construction groups, it likewise uses summed values and deduplicated product IDs, rather than a simple average of product percentages. It does not average three annual percentages. This combined view summarizes the period and can hide changes between years.

Tariff rates do not equal the final price increase

Trade-measure code matches are a screening tool. Actual applicability depends on the legal product description, origin, effective date and any exemption or remission. A listed duty rate is not a guaranteed increase in the final retail or installed price. The current Finance Canada list states an effective date of September 8, 2026; the 2026 Surtax Order sets schedule-specific rates of 15%, 25% and 50%. These are not a blanket rate for all materials. The October 6, 2026 source snapshot must not be applied retroactively to all 2023–2025 imports. A family may contain both listed and unlisted HS10 items: its full import value is not a measured dutiable value. Finance Canada list · 2026 legal order.

Supplier opportunity requires further verification

Country shares and factory evidence support a shortlist for investigation. They do not prove cheaper prices, certified compliance, reliable lead times or a profitable business opportunity. Before a procurement decision, obtain product specifications, quotes, capacity confirmation and current applicable trade measures.

6

Research terms of reference

The study screens recorded trade exposure and documented supply alternatives. It does not forecast sales, estimate a company’s profitability or certify a supplier.

GEOGRAPHY & TIME

Two separate evidence windows

Trade: Alberta-clearance imports, January 2023–December 2025. Policy: sources checked October 6, 2026, including measures effective September 8, 2026. Manufacturing: public evidence reviewed October 6, 2026; opening dates retained separately.

SCOPE

27 unique families, four uses

Buildings & rehabilitation; transport & bridges; water & sanitation; energy & industrial infrastructure. These are intended-use classifications, not observed customs destinations. Products can appear in more than one group. Services and a full construction bill of materials are outside scope.

UNIT OF ANALYSIS

A selected product basket

Product families are the research unit. Broad customs baskets can include several specifications and non-construction uses. See how the basket was prepared.

Main research question and the five supporting questions

Main: Which selected construction products should Alberta prioritize for supply diversification, considering recorded U.S.-origin imports and identified Canadian trade measures?

  1. Which selected products record the largest U.S.-origin import values?
  2. Which products have the largest U.S. share of recorded imports?
  3. Which products combine a high U.S. import value with a high U.S. share of imports?
  4. Which products with a high U.S. import share have documented manufacturing in Canada or Alberta?
  5. Which other origin countries already supply these products, and what share do they represent?

The initial question focused on buildings; the final exploratory scope extends the same screening method to four construction groups.

Additional checks, thresholds and reproducibility

The six-step guide above explains the main calculations and evidence matching. The following rules support reproducibility:

  • Report priority screen: at least CAD 10 million U.S.-origin import value over 2023–2025 and at least 50% U.S. import share. These are researcher-selected cut-offs, not an official or validated risk score.
  • Group comparisons: sum unique member-product values before calculating a group share. Do not add overlapping groups to obtain a study total.
  • Calculation checks: a zero denominator is unavailable, not 0%; keep original precision and round only for display.
  • Trade-measure checks: retain origin, date, year-specific classification, legal description and exceptions alongside a code match.
  • Reproducibility: retain source snapshots, original files, cleaning logs, code mappings, evidence dates and scripts. The Data page covers preparation.
Evidence grades and what counts as a factory
Evidence statusMinimum supportDisplay rule
DocumentedExplicit production or fabrication statement for a relevant product family, with a traceable public source.Canadian manufacturing can be shown; Alberta additionally needs an Alberta production location.
Partial / historicalRelated products, an uncertain facility role, or evidence limited to a past period.Flag the limitation; do not promote to a current confirmed plant.
Not establishedNo sufficient evidence found in the desk review.Say “not established in this research”, never “Canada does not make it”.

Examples: AltaSteel’s rebar page supports Alberta reinforcing-bar production; it does not prove production of all hot-rolled beam sections. A Calgary distributor address does not prove local manufacturing. CGC’s Wheatland plant opening on June 10, 2026 is current evidence, but not evidence of production during the 2023–2025 baseline.

What would strengthen the investigation next?
  • Refine broad HS6 baskets to construction-specific HS10 items and test classification changes across years.
  • Separate imports actually covered by each measure from unlisted items in the same product family.
  • Test rankings using different thresholds and individual years; report small-denominator effects.
  • Confirm product specifications, certifications, current output and lead times directly with manufacturers.
  • Use consistent production, exports, imports and inventory data to estimate apparent consumption before attempting national market share.
  • Have an independent reviewer reproduce calculations and review a structured sample; a 10-product spot check alone is insufficient.
7

Glossary, in plain English

Search a term or expand it for a practical explanation.

HS / Harmonized System

The product-classification system used for customs trade. Its hierarchy lets related goods be grouped consistently; it does not describe a construction project.

HS2 — chapter

Two digits: a broad material or goods chapter. Example: 72 covers iron and steel. HS2 is too broad for an exact-product tariff decision.

HS6 — subheading

Six digits: the international product subheading. Example: 721420 covers certain deformed or twisted iron/non-alloy steel bars. Our research families can combine one or more HS6 subheadings.

HS8 — Canadian tariff item

Eight digits: the Canadian tariff item. Example: 72142000. This is the level listed in many Canadian surtax schedules; read its legal description and notes.

HS10 — Canadian statistical classification

Ten digits: HS8 plus a statistical suffix. Example observed in this dataset: 7214200011. The suffix distinguishes a more detailed item; leading zeros must be kept and the correct year’s classification checked.

Country of origin

Where goods are produced or undergo the relevant final production stage in trade statistics. This is different from a seller’s headquarters, distributor location or shipment route. Customs rules ultimately determine legal tariff origin.

Province of clearance

Province where the import is cleared at customs. Alberta clearance does not prove Alberta use; Ontario clearance can still supply an Alberta project.

U.S. import share

U.S.-origin import value divided by all-origin import value for the selected basket and period. Example: CAD 80 from the U.S. out of CAD 100 imported = 80%. This is not 80% of the whole Alberta market.

Market share

A supplier’s or origin’s contribution to a defined total market, including domestic supply. The study lacks a consistent exact-product consumption denominator and does not estimate Canadian market shares.

Canadian-origin imports / re-imports

Recorded imports whose origin is Canada may reflect returned Canadian goods. They are not domestic factory sales and must not be used as Canada’s manufacturing share.

Nominal CAD value

Recorded dollars without an inflation adjustment. An increase may reflect prices, exchange rates or quantities; it is not automatically growth in physical demand.

Physical quantity / volume

A measured amount such as kilograms, tonnes, metres or units. Do not add incompatible units or call dollars a physical volume.

Derived extract

A researcher-created selection or aggregation of official observations. Example: filter to Alberta and 2023–2025, then calculate origin shares. It is not a new independently published official dataset; it retains source lineage.

Product family / construction group

A research product basket / a possible type of construction use. A family can appear in several groups; overlap counts must not be added.

Counter-tariff / surtax

An additional Canadian import duty on goods meeting the relevant origin, classification and date rules. Rates vary; the statutory value for duty is its base.

Antidumping duty / SIMA

A separate trade remedy under the Special Import Measures Act. Product description, country, exporter and normal/export values can determine applicability and amount; it is not one universal percentage.

Countervailing duty

A separate measure responding to subsidized imports. It can coexist with other duties and requires its own scope check.

Effective date / source-check date

When a legal measure starts / when a source was consulted. These dates differ from the historical trade years and cannot be substituted for each other.

Percentage point

Difference between two percentages. A rate moving from 25% to 50% rises by 25 percentage points; that does not mean every finished product’s selling price rises 25% or 50%.

Documented Canadian manufacturing / Alberta plant

Public evidence of relevant production in Canada / in an Alberta facility. It does not establish Canadian ownership, all-Canadian inputs, exact-product origin certification, market share, spare capacity or stock.

Apparent consumption

A supply proxy commonly built from domestic production + imports − exports, with consistent scope and inventory treatment. Broad manufacturing industry totals cannot simply be joined to HS10 import baskets to produce a reliable market share.

Source snapshot

A copy or record of a source at collection time. A live webpage may later change; the check date is part of the evidence.

Screening / prioritization

A way to shortlist products for further work. It is not proof of a profitable enterprise, a validated risk model or a procurement recommendation.

NAICS / supply-and-use categories

Industry classifications / broad economic product categories. They organize manufacturing context but are not interchangeable with HS customs codes.

8

How to state a defensible conclusion

SUPPORTED

Describe exactly what was observed

“This selected family has a high U.S. share of recorded imports cleared in Alberta during 2023–2025. Public sources also document relevant production in Canada. Exact specifications and capacity still require confirmation.”

NOT ESTABLISHED

Do not turn a proxy into a market claim

The evidence does not establish that Alberta buys this share of all its materials from the U.S., that Canadian supply can replace it immediately, or that the tariff guarantees the same percentage increase in the final installed price.

A simple duty example — illustrative, not a quote

If the legal value for duty is CAD 100 and a 50% surtax applies without an exception, that surtax component is CAD 50. Other duties, taxes, freight, margins and pricing decisions are separate. A change from a 25% to a 50% surtax changes this duty component from CAD 25 to CAD 50; it is not an automatic 50% increase in the final selling price.

9

References you can inspect

Search the curated source register by title, product, publisher, evidence role or review status. Only sources used in the current analysis, definitions or context are retained. Manufacturer review status comes from the project evidence register; it does not imply that every live link was re-tested in this page refresh.

Source / evidence roleWhat it supportsReview status / source
Investment context referenced in the Home page

These announcements explain the relevance of construction supply planning. Announced funding is not the same as expenditure or realized product demand; programs and provincial allocations may overlap.

Beyond U.S. Supply: Opportunities for Alberta Construction · Independent academic research project · Andrea Castillo
Trade baseline: 2023–2025 · Research and trade-measure snapshots: October 6, 2026 · No government or manufacturer endorsement implied.
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